The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released its May inflation data, reporting a 4.4% increase in food inflation over the last year.
The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose by 4.0% in the 12 months to May 2025, compared with 4.1% in the 12 months to April. On a monthly basis, CPIH rose by 0.2% in May 2025, compared with a rise of 0.4% in May 2024.
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.4% in the 12 months to May 2025, compared with 3.5% in the 12 months to April, while on a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.2% in May 2025 compared with a rise of 0.3% in the 12 months to April.
According to ONS, the largest upward contribution to the monthly change in CPIH and CPI annual rates came from food, where prices rose by 4.4% in the 12 months to May 2025, up from 3.4% in the 12 months to April. The May 2025 figure was the highest recorded since February 2024, when the rate was 5.0%.
On a monthly basis, food and non-alcoholic beverages prices rose by 0.7% in May 2025, compared with a fall of 0.3% a year ago.
There were upward effects to the change in the rate from seven of the 11 food and non-alcoholic beverages classes, with the largest coming from the sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate and confectionery class. Within this, prices of chocolate, confectionery and ice cream rose between April and May this year but fell between the same two months a year ago. There was also a small upward effect from meat, where, on a monthly basis, prices rose by more in May 2025 than May 2024.
Kris Hamer, director of insight at the British Retail Consortium, said: “Headline inflation held at 3.4% as higher bills and new business costs introduced in April continued to filter through into the economy. Worryingly for consumers, the price of the weekly shop rose once again as food inflation continued its upward trajectory, reaching its highest level since February last year. However, there were some bright spots. Deflation persisted in the clothing and footwear category and within the food category breakfast items such as eggs, bread and cereals fell in price on the month, offering some relief.
“Since October, retailers have warned that the costs from the Chancellor’s Budget could not be fully absorbed and would inevitably lead to higher prices for shoppers. Food inflation is now above 4% and looks set to increase further later in the year. The Government must now take action to relieve cost pressures retailers are facing. Ensuring no shop pays more under business rates reform would be a meaningful step forward, offering much needed relief to an industry that continues to see prices, job losses and store closures all rising.”
“We now expect to reach our forecast of 4.8% food and drink inflation for December sooner than anticipated.”
Dr Liliana Danila, lead economist at the Food and Drink Federation (FDF), stated: “Food and drink inflation shot up in May 2025, reaching 4.4% compared to 3.4% in April. These figures are being driven by rising energy and ingredients costs. Food manufacturing is an energy intensive sector, and wholesale gas prices are 7.8% higher compared to last May, as UK businesses face significantly higher industrial energy costs compared to other nations.
“Meanwhile, the price of ingredients has also surged. For example, in the last two years, the price of cocoa has tripled, while wholesale butter prices are also 55% higher than last year. Recent and upcoming regulations are also bringing additional costs to manufacturers.
“With these price increases being coupled with a drop in consumer confidence and a fall in retail sales, food manufacturers have been absorbing rising costs for several years. Recent geopolitical uncertainty is also likely to result in higher pressure on energy and imports, and so unstable manufacturing costs are likely to persist. As a result, we now expect to reach our forecast of 4.8% food and drink inflation for December sooner than anticipated.”
