The latest consumer price inflation figures have been released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), with food making the largest offsetting upward contribution to the change in inflation rate.

The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose by 3.8% in the 12 months to October 2025, down from 4.1% in September. On a monthly basis, it rose by 0.4% in October 2025, compared with a rise of 0.6% in October 2024.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.6% in the 12 months to October 2025, down from 3.8% in September, and on a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.4% in October 2025, compared with a rise of 0.6% in October 2024.

According to ONS, food and non-alcoholic beverages made the largest offsetting upward contribution to CPIH and CPI.

Looking at the food and non-alcoholic beverages category, 12-month inflation rate was 4.9% in October 2025, up from 4.5% in September. Food and non-alcoholic beverages prices rose by 0.5% in October 2025 on a monthly basis, compared with a rise of 0.1% a year ago.

Food manufacturers “nervous”

Karen Betts, chief executive of The Food and Drink Federation (FDF), commented: “It’s very concerning to see food price inflation continue to rise, particularly as we approach Christmas. Food and drink manufacturers are paying nearly 40% more for ingredients and energy than they were in January 2020, as well as bearing a range of newer regulatory costs, like new packaging taxes and increases to employer national insurance. Hard-pressed food and drink companies are finding they simply have no choice but to increase prices.

“As the Budget approaches, food manufacturers are nervous, with nine in ten worried about the impact of additional costs and taxes on food prices. We want instead to see Government step up and support our sector, by protecting businesses from unwelcome tax surprises and partnering with us to drive growth and build resilience, to help prevent future price rises for shoppers.”

James Walton, chief economist at the Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD), said: “Inflation for October was at 3.6%, down from 3.8% in September by the CPI method. However, food inflation saw an increase to 4.9%, versus 4.5% last month. Despite this increase, we think it will average at around 4% for 2025. Therefore, food inflation is likely past its peak and retailers will use this as an opportunity to hold prices down to drive volume growth during the crucial Christmas trading period.

“However, many shoppers are still finding it tough and will be looking around to find the best possible value for money, with IGD ShopperVista data showing that 66% of people plan to shop for promotions more and 65% plan to use their loyalty cards more as a way of managing household budgets.

“All eyes will now be on what is set to be a challenging Budget for the Chancellor. Food businesses will be assessing the implications in terms of additional costs impacting food inflation and any changes affecting households, which has the potential to impact spend.”