The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the latest consumer price inflation changes, finding that food prices rose by 4.5% over the 12 months to December 2025.
This was up from the 4.2% rise over the 12 months to November. On a monthly basis, food and non-alcoholic beverages prices rose by 0.8% in December 2025, compared with a rise of 0.5% a year ago.
There were upward effects to the change in the rate from three of the 11 food and non-alcoholic beverages classes. These included bread, cereals and vegetables (including potatoes), while oils and fats had a small downward effect in the change in rate.
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.4% in the 12 months to December 2025, up from 3.2% in the 12 months to November. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.4% in December 2025, compared with a rise of 0.3% in December 2024.
“Tackling rising prices and food security is a priority for industry and Government alike.”
Balwinder Dhoot, director of growth and sustainability at The Food and Drink Federation (FDF), commented: “After a challenging year for food and drink manufacturers, food inflation saw a further increase in December 2025. As costs rise across the board it’s clear that households are feeling the squeeze, resulting in a subdued Christmas for the sector. The low UK consumer confidence, coupled with the prospect of continued geopolitical volatility, is concerning for food and drink manufacturers who face rising costs and tighter budgets themselves.
“Tackling rising prices and food security is a priority for industry and Government alike, and these challenges underscore the need for Government to better incentivise investment and productivity growth in our sector. This will help protect the sector from future shocks and help manufacturers minimise price rises for consumers.”
Harvir Dhillon, economist at the British Retail Consortium (BRC), stated: “Headline inflation took an unwelcome rise at the end of year, primarily driven by increases in food inflation and transport costs. Across retail, there was a mixed picture for shoppers.
“With food inflation climbing to 4.5% and wage growth slowing, households are still feeling the squeeze. There was some respite for shoppers with the price of some breakfast items such as yogurt, jam and honey falling on the month.
“Headline inflation has been slow to fall from its summer peak and remains higher than at the start of the year. Within retail, this reflects the high costs currently buffeting businesses, including NI, labour costs, and packaging taxes, all of which have pushed up costs. Government must not be complacent about inflation; if incoming regulations, such as the Employment Rights Act, increase costs further, this will be felt by consumers – not only in higher prices, but from the knock-on impact to jobs, which have already fallen significantly over the past year.”
James Walton, chief economist at IGD, commented: “Food inflation for December was at 4.5% year on year by the CPI method, bringing the average to 4.2% for 2025. This was in-line with IGD forecasts for the year. Looking ahead, our latest forecast for retail food and drink inflation is for it to average at 3.8% in 2026 and 3.3% in 2027, meaning that food inflation will persist for some time.
“This is because the food and drink industry is under significant supply chain pressure due to global supply shortfalls and difficult operating environment. Long-term, the real ‘fix’ for food inflation is to maximise production, especially here in the UK, bringing supply into closer line with demand.
“There is an opportunity to drive production growth through policy unlocks which we set out in our report: Driving growth through a thriving food system, which outlines how targeted investment in UK horticulture and poultry could boost annual domestic production by £1.3 billion by 2030 and unlock over £5 billion of investment into the economy by 2030.”
