According to the latest Worldpanel by Numerator market figures, grocery price inflation held “steady” at 4.7% over the month to 30th November.
Take-home sales reportedly rose below inflation by 3.4% over the four weeks, and Worldpanel by Numerator saw prices rise fastest in markets such as chocolate confectionery, fresh meat (unprocessed) and added value poultry. Prices fell fastest in the sugar confectionery category.
The report found that retailers were “ramping up investment” in promotions to encourage shoppers through their doors as Christmas draws nearer, with sales expected to exceed £13.6 billion in December.
Boosted by an online jump, Ocado reached a new record market share of 2.2% with sales increasing by 15.8% over the 12 weeks to 30th November. However, bricks and mortar still dominates the grocery sector, and with Christmas falling on a Thursday this year, Monday 22nd and Tuesday 23rd are expected to be the busiest shopping days of the year.
Lidl made the biggest market share gain, winning an additional 0.5% compared with last year to reach 8.1% and achieving double-digit sales growth at 10.2%.
Tesco grew sales by 4.7%, attracting 321,000 more shoppers over the 12 weeks versus last year to hold 28.3% of the market, and Sainsbury’s sales rose by 5.1%, bringing the retailer’s market share to 16%.
Aldi spend increased by 4.1% and its share remained at 10.5%. Waitrose and Iceland both grew ahead of the market at 4%, maintaining shares of 4.4% and 2.3% respectively.
Asda sales accounted for 11.5% of the market, while Morrisons held 8.3% and Co-op’s share stood at 5.3%. Beyond the grocers, sales of take-home groceries at M&S were 8.9% higher over the 12 weeks compared with the same period in 2024.
“With the cost-of-living still biting for many this Christmas, just under one third of all spending is on promotion.”
Data from Worldpanel showed that 31.2% of spending was on promoted items, up from 30% this time last year.
Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, said: “Retailers are pulling out all the stops to win shoppers over as they gear up for one of the most important trading periods of the year. One in five households tell us that they’ve been struggling financially and that’s been largely consistent over the past two years (Worldpanel by Numerator PanelVoice, Pressure Groups Survey, 31st October to 10th November 2025, 9,365 panellists interviewed).
“With the cost-of-living still biting for many this Christmas, just under one third of all spending is on promotion as supermarkets find ways to shield shoppers from the impact of price rises.”
Worldpanel highlighted that the cost of a Christmas dinner for four was a “few pence cheaper” than last year at £32.46. However, it stated that retailers know customers want to indulge during the festive season.
McKevitt continued: “Retailers are savvy to the fact that at Christmas especially – even when times are tough – consumers still find the space in their wallet to spend on small treats. In fact, we’ve seen that right through the cost of living crisis as people have found new, more affordable ways to indulge in what we call the ‘pick-me-up pound’. The rise and rise of premium own label lines bears this out with one in every £20 now spent on these treat-type products.”
While chocolate prices were up 18.4% on this time last year, Worldpanel said it hadn’t stopped five million households putting a confectionery advent calendar in their basket in November.
