The Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD) has forecast that the global convenience channel will grow from around $900 billion in 2025 to over $1 trillion in sales by 2030, and said the world’s top 20 operators would account for more than $80 billion.
IGD also predicted that the channel will lose share in the grocery market as it faces “rising competition” from discounters, supermarkets and rapid delivery services.
The insight provider’s ‘Global convenience trends 2026’ report finds that while convenience will continue to grow at 3.5% CAGR to 2030, this will trail total grocery growth of 4% CAGR. As a result, IGD expects the channel’s share of grocery will fall from 10.7% in 2025 to 10.4% in 2030.
Sneha Haria, insight manager at IGD, said: “The headline growth masks a structural challenge: convenience risks becoming a bigger channel with a smaller role in grocery spending unless retailers and suppliers adapt. The channel’s historic advantages are being eroded, and without change, it will continue to lose share.”
Growth to vary by region
According to IGD’s analysis, the convenience category’s growth and market share will “vary greatly” by region, with Europe projected to deliver the strongest market share gains. It said these would rise from 11.3% to 11.9%, driven by aggressive estate expansion and franchising.
North America is expected to grow the slowest, with market share declining from 16.9% in 2025 to 15.1% in 2030 as discounters and rapid delivery “intensify” competition, said IGD.
Asia is predicted to contribute the largest increase in absolute sales, but IGD said that convenience penetration will remain below 8% as traditional retail and local food markets “continue to compete strongly”.
Expansion of discounters and delivery platforms reduce convenience store visits
The research went on to say that several forces had driven share decline. It said that discounters were expanding locally and attracting value-conscious shoppers, while supermarkets were sharpening small format propositions and fast delivery platforms were reducing immediate-need store visits.
IGD said that rising operating costs and regulation limiting pricing flexibility were impacting performance, as was shoppers’ perception of convenience being an expensive channel, particularly during periods of high inflation. It said that together, these factors were eroding convenience’s traditional advantages on proximity, speed and mission clarity.
Successful convenience retailers focus on multiple factors
The analysis highlighted that convenience operators gaining share were those “redefining the role” of the store, rather than relying on proximity alone.
IGD stated that successful retailers were increasingly focused on:
- Adding services, food, and experiences that competitors struggle to replicate locally
- Creating clear food-for-now and food-for-later missions
- Strengthening value credentials through private label, loyalty, and simpler pricing
- Using automation and technology to protect margins and improve efficiency
Haria added: “Convenience can no longer rely on proximity to justify its place in grocery. The operators gaining share are deliberately reshaping their offer around clear food missions, visible value, and everyday usefulness.”
