Research firm The Smart Cube has suggested that shoppers should prepare for higher chocolate prices this Easter, as the price of ingredients continues to inflate due to supply issues.

Cocoa prices are currently 35% higher than they were in December 2023, and 132% higher than in February 2023. Meanwhile sugar’s value rose by almost 16% year-over-year (YoY) in January 2024.

Nidhi Jain, commodity specialist at The Smart Cube, outlined what has caused cocoa and sugar prices to surge, as well as what this means for the cost of chocolate in the coming months. She said: “Cocoa’s price has reached a record high amid continued supply concerns in two of the leading cocoa-producing nations globally – Ivory Coast and Ghana – with cocoa production projected to decline by approximately 10% YoY in West Africa.”

A decrease in production has been caused by several factors, including the spread of disease in cocoa plantations; swollen shoot virus in Ivory Coast; and black pod disease in Ghana, which has led to crop deterioration.

Jain added that “uncharacteristically heavy” rains in the region has escalated the spread of these diseases – total precipitation in West Africa during the second half of 2023 was more than double the 30-year average – negatively impacting cocoa crop quality and production.

Global sugar prices have also risen considerably in recent months. The Smart Cube believes that a supply deficit of sugar is being caused by adverse weather associated with El Niño.

Jain explained: “The weather event has brought dry conditions to India and Thailand – two of the top five producers of the commodity globally. Both India and Thailand are already bearing the brunt of dry weather, with sugar output likely to fall by an estimated 10% and 32% respectively in the marketing year 2023/24 (from October 2023).”

The Smart Cube believes that, although chocolate costs are yet to surge, largely due to major chocolate producers having purchased the commodities in advance and stocked inventory, prices are likely to increase ahead of Easter.

Jain added: “Chocolate producers have failed to restock inventory, anticipating cocoa and sugar prices to drop. In fact, the opposite has happened, with cocoa’s value continuing to rise further and further. As the supply of both commodities dwindles, chocolate makers are expected to raise prices accordingly, passing rising costs onto consumers prior to Easter.”