It said that volumes had dropped by 11.7% in the first half of 2026 compared to H1 2025. At four billion kg, food exports were only marginally above levels at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic and in the aftermath of the 2001 foot and mouth disease outbreak.

However, it found that despite global conflict disrupting trade flows, food and drink imports reached record highs, with import volumes reaching their second highest level at 19.1 billion kg, behind only H1 2025. FDF said this highlighted a “concerning trend” of the UK’s food and drink trade gap widening, with UK food production becoming less competitive globally, while international competitors were “gaining ground” in the UK market. FDF warned that if this gap continued to widen, it would risk undermining UK food security.

Global conflicts see UK exports fall

Exports to the EU remained on a downward trend, falling 0.9% in value terms, including a decline to the UK’s top two export markets, Ireland (-4.9%) and France (-4.6%). This is rooted in the additional costs and complexity of trading with the UK’s nearest partners since Brexit, said FDF, with inconsistent application of rules across member states adding to the burden.

As well as the decline in EU exports, there was a fall in non-EU exports, which dropped 6.9% in value terms. This was driven in part by falling food and drink exports to the Middle East as a result of the ongoing war with Iran. For example, exports to UAE fell by nearly a quarter (23.4%).

FDF also found that the 10% tariff imposed by the US had a major impact, with food and drink exports to the country down 16.5%. It said this was likely to fall further, with the latest round of US tariffs giving EU producers a more advantageous position than UK businesses.

Non-EU imports to the UK increased

The volume of non-EU imports to the UK were up 22% since H1 2023. FDF highlighted that this was after the Government eased controls on imports to the UK from the rest of the world, and overall, the UK’s food and drink trade deficit now sits at -£21.1 billion in H1 2026 – the largest it has been since 2000.

High energy and regulatory costs, alongside policy uncertainty is making the UK a less attractive place to invest, FDF continued, and available funds are likely going overseas instead. A CBI report on business costs estimated that burden of taxes and packaging regulations on food and drink manufacturers was nearly £10 billion in 2025, equivalent to 23.8% of the sector’s GVA.

This was said to be worsening the “already large” trade gap, making the UK more reliant on imports for finished products during a period of “considerable geopolitical instability”, with FDF calling on Government to ask itself how far it will allow this trend to continue.

The body went on to say that with the UK suspending tariffs on a range of manufactured foods this year, the Government is exacerbating an already widening trade gap and undermining UK producers by improving competitors’ access to the UK market. Instead of making it easier for international businesses to sell their goods here, FDF said it should focus on addressing the competitiveness and concerns of UK manufacturers.

As part of this, it urged the Government to reduce tariffs on key ingredients used by food and drink manufacturers, rather than packaged products. This would reportedly help to reduce the cost of making food in the UK so that manufacturers can become more competitive both at home and abroad. With the Government currently in discussions with the EU about its future trade relationship, it was also said to be vital that UK manufacturers have adequate time to adapt to this significant change.

British jobs at risk

Karen Betts, chief executive of the FDF commented: “Our food and drink trade deficit is growing and is now the largest it’s been in over 25 years. In a world beset by conflict and the ever-increasing impacts of climate change, this poses some stark questions about our food security.

“The pressures on manufacturers are significant and growing, with the cost of everything they need to make food going up, from energy and ingredients, to logistics, packaging and labour. Constantly changing regulation and high compliance costs are adding to this and making UK businesses uncompetitive both here and abroad.

“When the Government then chooses to remove tariffs on, for example, biscuits imported from China, it’s not surprising that they’ll be sold more cheaply here than biscuits made in the UK using British ingredients. But this is putting British products and British jobs at risk.

“As we head to Liverpool this weekend, we’re calling on Andy Burnham and his Government to act on this stark evidence, working in partnership with the food industry, to ensure food producers – from farmers to the manufacturers who buy from them – can run viable businesses in postcodes right across the UK.”

National Farmers’ Union (NFU) president Tom Bradshaw stated: “These figures should be a wake-up call. At a time of growing geopolitical uncertainty, we cannot afford to take our food production capacity for granted.

“The pressures facing farm businesses are immense, from rising costs and regulatory burdens to extreme weather and global market volatility. If Government is serious about food security, economic growth and national resilience, it must create the conditions that give businesses the confidence to invest, innovate and grow.

“A strong food manufacturing sector depends on a strong farming sector. This widening food trade deficit underlines the need for a clear, long-term plan that backs British production and recognises a simple truth that food security is national security.”