Grocery price inflation increased to 2.6% over the period, up from 2.5% in the previous four weeks, which Numerator labelled as “relatively subdued”.
Sales at Ocado grew by 12.3% over the 12 weeks to 1st November 2026 versus the same time a year ago. This represents the 30th consecutive period of double-digit growth, and the online-only specialist achieved a joint record market share of 2.3%, up from 2.1% in 2025. M&S, part owner of the Ocado retail business, separately increased grocery sales through its stores in the same time period by 14.6%.
Till spend at Lidl increased by 6.6%, resulting in a market share gain of 0.4%, the greatest of any retailer, and it now accounts for 8.6% of all sales. The third retailer to increase share compared with last year was Waitrose, moving up to 4.5% from 4.4% as sales rose by 2.2%.
Sales at Morrisons rose by 2%, slightly ahead of the market, delivering a stable market share of 8.3%. Tesco, Britain’s largest grocer, now commands a 27.8% share, with sales 1.2% higher over the latest 12 weeks. Meanwhile, sales at Sainsbury’s increased by 0.8% to give a share of 15.5% – the highest since April.
Asda achieved a market share of 11.3%, while sales were up by 0.4% at Aldi, Britain’s fourth largest grocer, taking share to 10.4%. Co-op’s sales were 0.7% higher than a year ago, with the retailer now accounting for 5.3% of the market, while Iceland took a 2.2% share.
Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel by Numerator, commented: “Grocery price inflation continued to increase after slowing over the summer. While prices are rising at a slower rate than at the beginning of the year, the direction of travel has changed. Household budgets have already taken a hit after the latest increase to the energy price cap arrived with the cold weather in October, and shoppers will be keeping a close eye on prices at the tills this winter.”
Government stockpiling campaign impacts food sales
In the ten days following the Government’s launch of its ‘Be Ready’ campaign on 22nd October, sales of essential supplies jumped, with sales of tinned and jarred foods rising by 37%. The number of people buying tinned meat each day after the launch of the campaign rose by 43%, equivalent to an extra 400,000 shoppers a day, yet the typical amount bought remained at around 500g in terms of pack size.
Fraser McKevitt added: “Shoppers clearly took notice of the ‘Be Ready’ campaign, but this wasn’t panic buying, with less than a third of households buying bottled water in October. Growth came from more people adding the recommended items on the Government’s checklist to their weekly shop, not from shoppers piling their trolleys high, which is very much in line with what the Government wanted households to do.”
Over the month of October, 3.3 million households purchased a pumpkin, with the number sold up 10% year-on-year. The average price paid for a pumpkin stood at £1.20, 12% lower than last year, while tubs of sugar confectionery saw sales up by 28% compared to last year.
