The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.5% in the 12 months to September 2026, up from 3.1% the previous month. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.4% in September 2026, compared with little change in September 2025.
The 12-month inflation rate for food and non-alcoholic beverages was 1.3% in September 2026, unchanged from August. The rate was last lower in September 2021, when it was 0.8%. On a monthly basis, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices fell by 0.2% in September 2026, the same fall as in September 2025.
According to ONS, all 11 detailed classes within the food and non-alcoholic beverages division had little effect on the change in the headline rate. The consumption segments for other breakfast bakery products; cakes, tarts and sweet pies; tomatoes; and potato crisps had upward effects. The consumption segments for chocolate assortments and beef had downward effects.
ONS pointed out that although the annual rate of inflation for food prices has remained the same for the last three months, organisations like the Food and Drink Federation (FDF) expect food inflation to arrive later and persist for longer. It said this was partly because pressure on household budgets, competition and retailer resistance to price increases have “limited manufacturers’ ability to pass on higher costs”.
“With the Budget fast approaching, Government should prioritise extending targeted energy relief to the food and drink sector.”
Dr Liliana Danila, chief economist at the FDF, stated: “There’s no doubt that the cost of producing food in the UK is rising. On top of mounting regulatory pressures, input costs are rising across the board. Diesel prices are up two fifths and petrol around a third, while gas prices have more than doubled since February and the UK’s industrial electricity prices remain the highest in Europe. Packaging and ingredient costs are also rising. We expect that these increases will start to appear in consumer prices into next year.
“As manufacturers and retailers strive to keep prices as low as possible for consumers, especially in the lead up to Christmas, the pressure is building for the sector, undermining investment in the long-term resilience of the UK food system. Government should be doing what it can now to take the heat out of any later inflationary period and safeguard the UK’s food and drink sector.
“To start, with the Budget fast approaching, they should prioritise extending targeted energy relief to the food and drink sector. Food and drink has a direct impact on household budgets, so offering our sector the same support that is enjoyed by other manufacturing sectors would show a clear commitment to tackling the cost of living.”
James Walton, chief economist at IGD, commented: “Whilst food price inflation has stayed at 1.3%, it is hard to take much comfort as cost pressures continue to build across the food supply chain. Retailers are likely offsetting rising costs from geopolitical, regulatory and climate impacts to protect prices for shoppers, particularly ahead of the critical Christmas sales period.
“These cost pressures are placing immense strain on businesses and squeezing margins throughout the supply chain. It is hard to see how this can be maintained longer term, and our data shows that 79% of shoppers expect food prices to rise next year. Ultimately, a more resilient food system, with greater domestic capacity, is key to supporting price stability. The industry will be looking to the Budget to see how far the chancellor can support businesses and shoppers against a challenging financial outlook.”
