Numerator reported that grocery inflation now stands at 2.6% for the four weeks ended 12th July 2026, with prices rising fastest in markets such as fresh unprocessed fish and falling fastest in chilled butter and spreads and sugar confectionery. Take-home sales from the grocers accelerated to 3.3%.
Over the 12 weeks to 12th July 2026, Lidl market share moved up by 0.5%, which was said to be the largest gain for any grocer, as sales at the discounter rose by 8.6%. Sales at online only specialist Ocado were up by 14.1%, moving market share to 2.2%, up from 2% in the same time period last year.
Worldpanel figures show that Morrisons returned to share growth, claiming 8.5% of the market with an increase of 0.1% compared to 2025 as sales rose by 3.5%. Bouncing back from last year’s cyber issues, spending through the tills at Co-op increased by 5.6%, the fastest rate of growth since February 2021. As a result, Co-op share rose by 0.2% to 5.4%.
Sainsbury’s gained market share, moving from 15.1% last year to 15.2% in the last 12 weeks with sales growing by 2.8%. Sales at Tesco were up by 1.7% with a market share of 27.9%.
Sales at Asda were down 1.1% on last year, which Numerator described as a “notable improvement” on the -3.6% reported last month. Asda market share over the 12 weeks now stands at 11.5%, and Aldi holds a 10.8% share with sales growing by 0.7%
Both Iceland and Waitrose kept market share flat compared to last year at 2.2% and 4.4% respectively. The former grew sales by 2.3%, while Waitrose saw an uptick of 2.5%. Grocery-only sales at M&S increased by 16% over the 12 weeks, the fastest rate since May 2023.
Shopper spend on groceries increases
Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel by Numerator, commented: “Easing price rises will come as welcome news to shoppers, but the annual bill tells a fuller story. The average household spent £5,530 on groceries over the past 12 months to July, up £156 on the same period last year – a reminder that even as the rate of inflation cools, the cumulative cost of the weekly shop keeps climbing.”
Spending on burgers was up 25%, while spending on frozen lollies was up 17%. Over the Wimbledon fortnight, Numerator reported £77 million spent on strawberries and £21 million on cream, as shoppers made the most of the sunshine.
The market research firm found that convenience stores enjoyed a “strong month”, with an increase of seven million trips compared with the same four weeks last year, which it attributed to shoppers “popping out” for quick local runs.
Branded goods outgrew own label this month for the first time since last August, with sales up 5.5% against 4%. Confectionery and ice cream led the shift, which Numerator identified as categories where summer demand and impulse buying typically favour big names over own label.
