The authoritative independent voice of the UK food industry

The authoritative independent voice of the UK food industry

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Grocery inflation rises to 4.1%

28 May, 2025

According to market research firm Kantar's supermarket share update, grocery inflation was at its highest rate in over a year.

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Market research firm Kantar has released its supermarket share update, finding that grocery inflation was at its highest rate in over a year.

Data showed that take-home grocery sales grew by 4.4% over the four weeks to 18th May compared with last year, and in the same period, grocery inflation rose to 4.1%, its highest level since February 2024.

Prices reportedly rose fastest in markets such as chocolate confectionary, butter and spreads, while falling in pet food.

At UK discounters, there was the strongest combined growth since January 2024, reaching 8.4%. Lidl reached a share high of 8.1% with sales up by 10.9%. Aldi’s hold of the market reached a record high at 11.1% with sales rising by 6.7%, its fastest growth rate since the start of last year.

Online retailer Ocado marks a full year as Britain’s fastest growing grocer, having held the position since June 2024. Over the 12 weeks to 18th May 2025, sales climbed by 14.9%.

Tesco boosted sales by 5.9% to increase its share by 0.4%, and now has 28% of the market. Sales growth at Sainsbury’s accelerated by 4.7% giving it a 15.1% market share.

Sales at Morrisons increased by 1.1% and it now holds 8.4% of the market. After Asda’s best performance since May last year, its share stands at 12.1%. Waitrose maintained a 4.6% share as sales grew by 4.0%. Spending through the tills at Iceland went up by 1.9%, bringing the frozen food specialist’s portion of the market to 2.2%.

Despite the recent cybersecurity incidents, spending on groceries at M&S rose by 12.3%. Convenience retailer Co-op also faced challenges, but still increased sales by 0.6% to take 5.3% of the market.

“Volume sales of cottage cheese, flatbreads and fresh prepared fruit have all been growing strongly.”

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, commented: “This latest jump in grocery price inflation takes us into new territory for 2025. Households have been adapting their buying habits to manage budgets for some time, but we typically see changes in behaviour once inflation tips beyond the 3% to 4% point as people notice the impact on their wallets more. Own label lines are ones to watch, with premium own label, in particular, being the fastest growing part of the market since September 2023.

“The growth of spending on deals has carried on this month, increasing by 5.1% versus May last year. Trimming prices remains the most popular way for retailers to draw in customers, with 80% of promotional spending this period down to straightforward price cuts.”

Britons enjoyed the hottest ever start to May, which Kantar highlighted as a reason to get the barbecue out. McKevitt said: “We’ve been firing up the barbecues a bit earlier than last year, with chilled burgers flying off the shelves and sales growing by 27%. Shoppers didn’t forget the all-important sides, as sales of potato salad rocketed by 32% and coleslaw and prepared salads by 19% each. As the mercury rose, sun cream sales also shot up by 36% as Brits made the most of the spring sun.”

“It seems that consumers are shaping their diets around their lifestyle choices, with health, wellbeing and exercise apparently top of many people’s minds. Sports nutrition products have been the biggest winners. The number of these products bought has surged by 45% over the past five months versus the same time in 2024. Volume sales of cottage cheese, flatbreads and fresh prepared fruit have all been growing strongly too, up by 30%, 29% and 22% in each case.”

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