Due to weather experienced over the summer of 2022, EU cattle slaughter numbers are predicted to increase which is likely to “stunt” EU dairy production going into 2023, according to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB).

AHDB said that the latest EU short term outlook is anticipating a 0.5% decrease in milk collections for 2022, which is in line with the EU summer outlook, forecasting a decrease in production of 0.6%.

The hot and dry weather experienced over this year’s summer affected daily collections, fertility, feed and forage availability and quantity. It added that due to this, slaughter numbers are anticipated to increase to adjust to future feed and forage availability.

It also recorded a reduction in milk fat and protein content of milk, each down 1.2% compared to 2021. This decrease is anticipated to drop by 0.8% and 1% respectively if shortages of key ingredients impact winter diets, according to AHDB.

It added: “When coupled with an overall decrease in milk production, it implies lower availability of milk solids for processing.”

Impact on products

Cheese, drinking milk, yoghurt and butter are all expected to see a reduction in total volume produced this year. Milk powder production, whilst previously expected to see some growth for the year, is now expected to drop. AHDB said that the high cost of drying SMP and WMP could cause a decrease in production, with SMP current production lowering by 2% and WMP by 8%.

AHDB concluded: “For 2023, cheese production is anticipated to see a small gain of 0.6% in 2023 with some recovery in exports. Butter production has the potential to increase by 0.5% in 2023 if the price of vegetable oils remains high, making butter alternatives an expensive substitute.”