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US trade has “significant impact” on 2025 trade outlook

26 Sep, 2025

According to the latest Trade Snapshot from the Food and Drink Federation, food export volumes were up 7.2% in the first half of 2025.

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According to the latest Trade Snapshot from the Food and Drink Federation (FDF), food export volumes were up 7.2% in the first half of 2025.

In the first six months of the year, the UK exported 4.5 billion kg and 590 million litres of food and drink respectively to more than 200 countries around the world, said FDF, and this increase followed a decline in food and drink exports last year. FDF is now calling on Government to work with industry on ambitious targets to ensure exports continue to grow, given food and drink export volumes are still more than a tenth (13%) lower than 2023 levels.  

The Trade Snapshot revealed that trade with the UK’s largest partner, the EU, showed “steady growth” of 4.2% in value terms compared to 2024. However, export growth was largely driven by trade with non-EU countries, which increased by more than a tenth (10.6%) compared to the first half of last year.

It went on to say that the trade with the US had a “significant impact” on the trade outlook in the first half of the year, as exports of food and drink to the US increased by 18.9% to reach £1.4 billion. This growth continued even after the additional 10% tariff took effect, which FDF said reflected the UK’s comparatively better deal in some categories of food and drink than some other nations. 

Additionally, the snapshot said that two years on from the signing of a trade deal with Australia-New Zealand, exports to New Zealand increased by almost a fifth (19.7%) in H1. India also saw 11.6% growth. A new trade deal with India, signed in July 2025 and expected to come into force in 2026, will help build on this trend, the report stated, with a removal or reduction of high Indian tariffs on selected UK food and drink exports over the next decade.

According to the Trade Snapshot, while the report “shows green shoots for export growth”, this follows a year of flatlining exports. FDF has urged Government to partner with industry to seize this trade growth and ensure it continues, turning these “promising signs” into a longer-term trend.  

FDF said it would work with Government to “set ambitious targets” to grow overseas exports. It said it wanted to work on a plan to “maximise new global trade opportunities”, while aiming to provide businesses with the support and guidance they need to take advantage of these – particularly small businesses that might be new to selling abroad. It highlighted that this was “particularly important” given the “overall volatility of trade”, and said it would insulate UK manufacturers from any downturn.

For example, to help build export momentum, Government can help more businesses to trade with countries most impacted by US tariffs and where the UK is already seeing strong growth, such as Mexico, Canada and China. Retaliatory measures introduced by these countries have led to “notable declines” in food and drink exports from the US to these markets, opening up export opportunities for UK suppliers.

UK manufacturers must “remain competitive” with the EU

US tariffs will reportedly continue to impact in the second half of the year, with FDF stating that it is “vital” that Government reduces tariffs for products such as chocolate and ice cream where the UK has ended up with a higher rate than the EU, so that UK manufacturers can remain competitive.

It went on to say that across the rest of the world, a comprehensive trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) could also provide new customers for UK suppliers, with UK food and drink already seeing high demand in the region. Meanwhile, with exports to Türkiye up 68.6% in H1, progressing an updated Free Trade Agreement could boost this further as well as diversifying the UK’s supply of products such as hazelnuts, sweet potatoes, and olive oil.

A new SPS agreement with the EU will also help remove significant barriers to trade, said FDF, including complicated and expensive checks and certification. Until the new agreement comes in, Government can work to reduce border costs and avoid any unnecessary burden on businesses by providing a clear roadmap for businesses, with guidance and phased transition periods.

Balwinder Dhoot, director of Industry Growth and Sustainability at the FDF. | Picture: Georgiana Chitea.

Balwinder Dhoot, director of growth and sustainability at FDF, said: “It’s positive to see an increase in export volumes compared with last year, and now we need to go further. Government and industry can work together to use this as a springboard to turbocharge export growth.

“We want to work with Government to create a clear and ambitious target to boost the UK’s overseas food and drink sales, with a long-term plan to help us hit it. This could include improving access to global markets like Türkiye and Mexico, ensuring the smooth implementation of an EU SPS agreement, bringing down US tariffs where they’re higher than those paid by the EU, and supporting businesses that want to trade with new markets. This would help give industry a much-needed boost, helping businesses to sell more world-class British food and drink around the globe.” 

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