For decades, growth in the away from home market has largely been measured through volume. More visits, more meals and more consumption generally translated into more opportunities to sell products.

Our latest UK Away From Home forecast suggests that dynamic is changing.

We expect the market to grow from £103.3 billion in 2026 to £122.8 billion by 2031, creating what appears to be a positive growth story. However, the underlying drivers of that growth tell a more complicated tale.

Around 85% of that value growth will come from inflation rather than increased demand; meanwhile we don’t expect volume recovery to start returning until 2029.

For suppliers, manufacturers and foodservice partners, that distinction matters.

Historically, market growth often created a relatively straightforward route to expansion. A growing hospitality sector generally meant more meals being served, more trade ups from consumers, more ingredients being purchased, and greater opportunities across product categories.

The next phase of growth is likely to be different. Operators are entering a period where sales values continue to rise, but underlying demand remains constrained, forcing businesses to work harder for every pound of growth.

That changes the nature of the supplier opportunity.

Growth without volume

Many operators remain caught between rising costs and cautious consumers. Labour, energy and food costs continue to place pressure on margins, while customers remain selective about discretionary spending. Even where confidence gradually improves, we expect growth to return unevenly and slowly.

As a result, operators are increasingly focused on protecting profitability rather than driving aggressive expansion. Efficiency, waste reduction, labour productivity and menu optimisation have become strategic priorities rather than operational considerations.

The suppliers best positioned to grow are likely to be those that can help operators address those pressures.

Not all growth opportunities are equal

One of the clearest messages emerging from the forecast is that recovery will be uneven.

We expect leisure and accommodation to be among the strongest-performing sectors over the next five years, growing at CAGRs of 4.5% and 4.3%, respectively. Restaurants and pubs, meanwhile, will grow at 3.1% and 3%.

For suppliers, this highlights the importance of understanding where growth is occurring. Businesses focused heavily on sectors impacted by reduced consumer frequency may face a very different outlook from those aligned with travel, hospitality and experience-led occasions.

The implication is that commercial strategy becomes more targeted. Winning market share may depend less on broad market exposure and more on identifying the sectors, operators and occasions that are best positioned to outperform.

For manufacturers, this may require a reassessment of channel priorities, customer segmentation and resource allocation.

The challenge is not simply identifying growth but determining where effort is most likely to generate returns. Not every sector, operator type or route to market will recover at the same pace.

GLP-1 changes the equation

Our forecast also incorporates the impact of GLP-1 weight-loss medications for the first time.

By 2031, we expect growing GLP-1 adoption to reduce away from home spending by almost £1 billion. While the headline number is significant, the broader implications may prove even more important.

Historically, improving economic conditions were often associated with both stronger demand and increased consumption. The growing use of GLP-1 medications introduces a new variable into that relationship.

On top of GLP-1 users visiting less frequently, they are also often ordering fewer courses, smaller portions and fewer drinks. This means that even where volumes recover, consumption patterns may not fully mirror those seen in previous recovery cycles.

For suppliers, this raises important questions. How should product development evolve if consumers increasingly seek smaller portions or lighter options? Which categories become more exposed if consumers reduce drink purchases or course counts? How can they collaborate with operators to better engage experience-focused consumers?

These behavioural shifts have implications across product development, portion architecture, menu planning and category performance.

The value creation opportunity

Suppliers may increasingly need to shift their focus from volume generation towards value creation.

That does not simply mean premiumisation, although premium products will continue to play an important role. Rather, it means helping operators create value through multiple levers.

Some operators will seek products that support higher spend per occasion. Others will prioritise labour efficiency, operational simplicity or waste reduction. Many will look for solutions that help them navigate changing consumer behaviours without compromising margins.

In this environment, insight becomes a competitive advantage.

Suppliers that can demonstrate a deeper understanding of changing market dynamics are likely to become more valuable partners. Understanding evolving consumer expectations, identifying emerging consumption trends and translating those insights into practical commercial solutions may become increasingly important sources of differentiation.

At the same time, the growing fragmentation of the market creates opportunities for specialist suppliers. Operators continue to look for ways to differentiate menus and experiences, creating demand for expertise, innovation and niche capabilities that sit beyond purely scale-driven propositions.

Looking beyond recovery

The encouraging news is that signs of recovery remain in sight, albeit with an important caveat. While we expect the market will return to real-term growth from 2029, its value will not regain pre-Covid levels within the forecast period (to 2031). Even so, opportunities will remain significant for businesses that adapt successfully.

However, suppliers should not assume the next recovery will resemble previous ones.

The away from home sector is in a period shaped by inflation-led growth, shifting consumer priorities, changing health behaviours and a more selective spending environment.

For suppliers, the challenge is understanding where growth will come from. The strongest opportunities are unlikely to be spread evenly across the market. Instead, success will increasingly depend on identifying the sectors, customer groups and consumption trends that are best positioned to outperform.

The next phase of away from home growth may still be significant. But it is likely to reward precision over scale, making insight, targeting and adaptability just as important as volume.

IGD is a charity that offers insights and consulting services to the food sector with the aim of uniting the industry to address critical challenges across the agrifood supply chain.

Shannon Goldsmith is a senior insight analyst at Shopper – IGD focusing on away-from-home and food-to-go categories.