The global grocery retail market will generate an additional US$2.2 trillion in sales by 2024, growing by 24%, according to the latest forecast from international research organisation IGD.
IGD’s forecast anticipates:
- Asia will account for nearly 50% of all new sales produced between 2019 and 2024
- North America is set to produce 12% of the new sales to 2024
- Overall, Europe is set to account for nearly 16% of new sales to 2024, with Western Europe generating almost two-thirds of these
- Latin America has seen a slowdown in growth in 2019, which is expected to bounce back in the short term
Commenting on growth in Central and Eastern Europe, Jon Wright said: “The discount and supermarket channels will be responsible for most of the additional sales generated between 2019 and 2024 for central and eastern Europe, accounting for nearly 50% of the region’s grocery sales growth. Discounters will be the biggest contributor. X5’s Pyaterochka in Russia, Lidl across the region and Biedronka in Poland will continue to add stores to 2024, enabling new shoppers to access their stores more frequently.”
On Western Europe, head of EMEA Jon Wright said: “Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the UK combined will account for nearly two-thirds of all new sales generated between 2019 and 2024. Among the top five, Germany and Spain are set to grow faster than the wider reason.
“Discounters and the online channel are set to be the key drivers of growth to 2024, with both gaining share versus established channels like hypermarkets and supermarkets. In discount, the continued expansion of regional retailers like Aldi and Lidl will underpin growth, but in specific countries national champions like REMA 1000, Netto and Eurospin will support this growth too. Online will benefit from more investment in improved delivery solutions.”
Regarding growth in Asia, IGD’s head of Asia Nick Miles said: “Asia’s importance to the global grocery market will continue to grow, with eight of the top 20 largest markets set to be in the region in five years’ time. China, India, Japan and Indonesia will account for the majority of new grocery sales generated in Asia between 2019 and 2024. China will overtake the US in 2022 to become the largest grocery market in the world and will account for 43% of new grocery sales in Asia over the next five years. India will also grow in significance, accounting for nearly a fifth (23%) of new sales.
“Traditional trade will continue to grow, while modern trade will benefit from more stores and improvements to existing operations. Growth will vary considerably by market, with convenience and online set to contribute the fastest growth. Online in particular will grow in importance across all markets.”
On North America, Stewart Samuel, programme director at IGD Canada, said: “As a mature market, growth is slow and steady and the economic outlook remains mixed. Online grocery and the discounters will be the fastest growing channels over the next five years. For online, we are in a period of rapid expansion, with retailers seeking to build scale in the channel. Discount retailers, both hard discounters and dollar store operators, are evolving their models and aiming to grab a greater share of customers’ food spend.”
Regarding growth in Latin America, retail analyst Oliver Butterworth said: “The majority of growth in Latin America will be driven by Brazil, which accounts for more than a third of the region’s grocery market. Cash and carry is the fastest growing physical channel in the country, which will cause hypermarkets to continue to lose share. Carrefour and GPA, two of Brazil’s top three grocery retailers, are each opening around 20 new cash and carry stores annually and this pace of expansion is likely to continue in the medium-term.”